Uncle Dale's Betting Lab · Post-Game Stats
ECF Game 3 · 2026-05-23 · Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse · Cleveland
FINAL · Knicks lead series 3-0 · 10th straight playoff win · one win from the NBA Finals
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYK | 39 | 21 | 27 | 23 | 110 |
| CLE | 27 | 27 | 25 | 14 | 93 |
Knicks opened with a monster Q1 (39-27, 13-of-18 shooting). Cavs clawed within 2 at half (60-54). Knicks pulled away in Q4, holding Cleveland to 14.
| Player | Team | PTS | FG | 3PM/A | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | NYK | 23 | 8-15 | 0-4 | 3 | 6 |
| OG Anunoby | NYK | 21 | 6-9 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 |
| Mikal Bridges | NYK | 20 | 10-13 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 |
| James Harden | NYK | 19 | 8-15 | 1-7 | 5 | 3 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | NYK | 13 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 |
| Josh Hart | NYK | 12 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 7 | 5 |
| Landry Shamet | NYK | 12 | 4-5 | 4-5 | 1 | 3 |
| Mitchell Robinson | NYK | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 |
| Donovan Mitchell | CLE | 20 | 8-18 | 2-7 | 0 | 4 |
| Evan Mobley | CLE | 18 | 7-13 | 1-5 | 4 | 1 |
| Jarrett Allen | CLE | 15 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 |
Stake $15.00 → potential payout $12,015.00 · halftime cash-out was $14.49
| Leg | Line | Odds | Actual | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers ML | win | +150 | Cavs lost 93-110 | LOST | — |
| Donovan Mitchell pts | 23+ | -350 | 20 | LOST | -3 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns pts | 21+ | +110 | 13 | LOST | -8 |
| James Harden pts | 25+ | +140 | 19 (1-7 from 3) | LOST | -6 |
| Landry Shamet pts | 5+ | -115 | 12 (4-5 from 3) | ✅ WON | +7 |
| Mitchell Robinson pts | 6+ | +1000 | 2 | LOST | -4 |
| 7th leg (Brunson 25+ presumed) | 25+ | ? | 23 | LOST | -2 |
| Slip outcome — 1 of 7 hit | — | +80000 | — | SLIP LOST | −$15.00 |
Kill switches confirmed: Mitchell Robinson 6+ (he ended at 2 — the +1000 odds priced it for what it was), KAT 21+ (a facilitator tonight, 7 ast), Harden 25+ (1-7 from three torched him). Five legs missed by ≤8 points; one leg (Shamet) cleared comfortably. SGPs need all legs to fire — nearly-clearing five doesn't move the needle.
Stake-equivalent comparison per the lab's source-pool + stake-equivalence rules.
| Build | Stake | Potential | Result | Payout | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Balanced Scoring Allen 13+ ✅ (15) · KAT 15+ ❌ (13) · Mitchell 25+ ❌ (20) |
$3.75 | $19.69 | LOST · 1/3 | $0.00 | −$3.75 |
| B · Cavs Correlated Hammer Cavs ML ❌ · Mitchell 25+ ❌ (20) · Allen 13+ ✅ (15) |
$3.75 | $28.13 | LOST · 1/3 | $0.00 | −$3.75 |
| C · Mixed Star Scorer Brunson 25+ ❌ (23) · Mobley 15+ ✅ (18) · KAT 15+ ❌ (13) |
$3.75 | $22.50 | LOST · 1/3 | $0.00 | −$3.75 |
| D · Threes Rescue Nuke OG O2.5 3s ✅ (3) · KAT O1.5 3s ❌ (1) · Harden O2.5 3s ❌ (1) |
$3.75 | $71.25 | LOST · 1/3 | $0.00 | −$3.75 |
| Total — Optimizer portfolio | $15.00 | — | 0 of 4 won | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Decision point | Action | Outlay | Settles | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halftime cash-out | Accept Fanatics offer $14.49 | $15.00 | Lock at half | −$0.51 |
| Halftime Plan B hedge | $22.50 on Knicks ML -150 (paper price) | $37.50 | Knicks won → hedge paid $37.50 | $0.00 |
| TICK 1 (Q3 3:07) Plan B | $21.31 on Knicks ML -142 | $36.31 | Knicks won → hedge paid $36.31 | $0.00 |
| TICK 5 (Q4 9:18) Plan B | $37.50 on Knicks ML -250 | $52.50 | Knicks won → hedge paid $52.50 | $0.00 |
| Path actually taken | Hold the slip to settlement | $15.00 | Slip lost | −$15.00 |
Lesson worth banking: in this game, every "press the upside" branch (hold Dale's slip · run the optimizer alternatives at equal stake) ended at −$15. Every "save bankroll" branch (cash-out · any Plan B Knicks-ML hedge) ended at ≈$0. The optimizer didn't beat Dale this time — they both struck out on the same kill legs (KAT, Harden, Mitchell, Robinson 6+). The edge was in the hedge / cash-out branch, which the lab flagged at halftime and never wavered on.
As more games are added to the archive, this graph auto-extends. Today is a 1-game baseline.
~/Downloads/ at 2026-05-23 21:49 (UUIDs: bccf39af…, aa70a63a…).